Thursday, March 10, 2005
Okay, so what chance to we have tonight. UConn is better than us at every position and is playing their best basketball of the year. And we played yesterday. They also beat us easily twice. I'm saying we have a 5-10% chance of winning because they probably will not be playing with much of a sense of urgency and could be a little rusty b/c they've had the last week off. That said if we win we very well could sneak into the tourney. There were a number of recent developments that could help us. First, everyone has been calculating the RPI wrong. We're in the mid-60s, NOT the mid-90s. Second, Notre Dame's loss really hurt them. I think they are cooked. Third, a lot of bubble teams have lost recently. Although I realize this is primarily an academic discussion, if we win tonight, and West Virginia loses, there is no way their they or ND gets in over us (all three of our RPIs and SOS are comprable). Would the committee only take 5 teams from the Big East?